The future. On the surface, it’s a pretty simple concept. If you look at your watch and add one minute to the time you see…that’s the future. But the word can mean very different things to different people. Some perceive the future as a place of hope, where innovation and progress will have solved many of the problems we face today. Others see times of tribulation, filled with catastrophe and disaster.
One thing is certain: the future is the focus of endless curiosity, speculation and thought. Whether it’s out of anxiety, excitement or an attempt to control events in our lives, we all wonder what’s coming next. To paraphrase American inventor Charles F. Kettering, our interest is in the future because we are going to spend the rest of our lives there.
As we stand at the gates of a new decade, we at metalmag felt it would be appropriate to take a look at where the metal construction industry has been in the past ten years and where it may be going in the next ten years. We had the opportunity to chat with a number of voices in the industry, each with their own perspectives and ideas about what the future holds for us. We posed a number of questions to each and, through their answers, we hope to catch a glimpse of what the future holds for metal construction.
What changes, trends and evolutions have you seen in the metal construction industry in the past decade?
Michael Petersen, president of Petersen Aluminum Corp., Elk Grove Village, Ill.
“I think the biggest trend I’ve seen in the past ten years has been the development of sustainability and green architecture. There was a time when the mills would hide the fact that their aluminum or steel was high in recycled content. Now it’s become a selling point.”
Ron van der Veen, AIA, principal, Mithun, Seattle
“A decade ago, we used metal siding when we wanted an industrial or funky aesthetic. The perception of metal siding has evolved tremendously. Our university, school and institutional clients look at metal as a legitimate option for a refined, quality look.”
Toy Henson, director of marketing, The Metal Initiative, Glenview, Ill.
“The greatest innovations in the past decade have been in the realm of energy efficiency. The development of new ‘cool’ pigments and the recognition of insulated metal panels for thermal properties are most notable.”
Brian Partyka, president, Drexel Metals LLC, Ivyland, Pa., and co-chair of the glenview-based Metal Construction Association’s Sustainability Committee
“When I started in this industry in 1995, I remember contractors saying they weren’t interested in installing metal roofs because they were complex and unique. Now there’s not a roofing contractor in the industry that’s not installed or thought about installing a metal roof.”
Bob Zabcik, technical director, NCI, Houston
“To me, the overriding evolution in the past 10 years has been the increased influence of government and code bodies. There is so much more involved in a construction project before the ground is broken than ever before.”
Scott Kriner, president of Green Metal Consulting Inc., Macungie, Pa., and technical director of the Metal Construction Association
“The introduction of cool coatings used with metal roofing or wall systems has significantly changed the perception of metal for the better.”
What kinds of changes do you expect to see in the industry in the next ten years?
Brian Partyka
“True life-cycle data is showing that metal is going to continue gaining market share because people will stop replacing products that have failed in the past. The market is getting smarter. People are more aware of the life cycle and true cost understanding.”
Michael Petersen
“I think the real development in the next ten years will be the awareness of the fact that there is a lot of trapped waste energy underneath a roof. Whether that be with a metal roof or any kind of roof, how can we use that trapped energy to improve the efficiency of a building?”
Toy Henson
“The use of metal panels as a platform for photovoltaics is sure to be noteworthy in the coming decade.”
Scott Kriner
“As new coatings, products, installation techniques and technology allow metal roof and wall systems to become even more energy efficient, metal will continue to expand its positive perception. The [Washington, D.C.-based] Department of Energy’s emphasis on net-zero energy buildings will be a driving force behind how we look at metal roofs and walls as complete systems, rather than as a building envelope material.”
Bob Zabcik
“I believe the trend of government and code influence will continue, particularly as green construction mandates are put in place. As an industry, we can turn this trend into a big advantage by being educated about, understanding and participating in the process.”
Don Clark, sales manager, Liberty Building Systems, Memphis, Tenn.
“People are simply more aware of energy efficiency now, and I believe this will only continue to be top of mind in the coming years. Metal building manufacturers are already making strides in this direction as organizations consider the life-cycle cost, rather than just the initial cost of a building.”
When do you see the U.S. construction market rebounding? What does recovery look like?
Dick Bus, president, ATAS International, Allentown, Pa.
“I think commercial new construction will rebound in 2012 and residential new construction will come back in 2011. Renovation projects, partly because of need and partly because of the government focus on energy-efficient buildings, will rebound earlier, in 2010.”
Michael Petersen
“Ultimately, I see things going back to the way they were, just because of demographics. In the U.S. alone we’re creating something like 1.5 million new households every year and they’ll be creating new demand when markets heal. Will things go back to the same level they were before this mess? Yes. How long will it take? I think it’s probably going to be a longer timeframe than most people would like to admit. I think 2010 will be a pretty weak year, but in 2011 we might see some return to normalcy.”
Bob Zabcik
“I think it may be some time before things return to normal, but it is encouraging that residential construction has rebounded some already. It’s logical that new commercial construction would lag behind residential since there is so much empty commercial space across the country that needs to be filled first.”
Brian Partyka
“I’m hoping for growth in 2010. I think it’ll be based around market share, but I don’t know if the metal industry as a whole is going to grow. I think it’ll return more quickly than competitive products, however. Metal will gain market share in this kind of economy.
Where does metal fit into future construction and economic growth?
Scott Kriner
“Since green construction and retrofitting are the only bright spots in construction at the moment, anything that improves metal’s perception as being green or having a lower environmental impact will continue to help the growth of metal products as the construction market rebounds.”
Steve Cavanaugh, AIA, LEED AP, principal with DLR Group, Chicago
“I would think that metal will become more prevalent in the commercial roofing industry as trends move toward building longevity.”
Toy Henson
“After looming for years as a potentially viable and growing market, retrofit is gaining even greater momentum than ever before. It has the greatest potential for growth of all the markets, and metal is an obvious solution for building owners, regardless of their motivations for updating or upgrading an existing facility.”
Bob Zabcik
“Metal construction has a bright future as long-term performance plays a more significant role in the minds of decision makers. A large part of that is driven by energy usage, but durability and strength is becoming more important to the average building owner. This paradigm shift has been driven by insurance companies looking to mitigate risk, as well as heightened public awareness of the threats of hurricanes, earthquakes and toxic mold in the past several years, all of which metal construction is well equipped to handle.”
How will the lessons of the past impact future construction?
Steve Cavanaugh
“We will continue on our path toward carbon neutrality, net-zero energy and global sustainability. This will allow construction growth to continue, but along a transforming and evolving path.”
Ron van der Veen
“I only hope this recession will teach us moderation in the design and construction industry.”
Michael Petersen
“What we’ve seen in the past couple of years is almost unprecedented in my career. What was looking like a standard, cyclical recession ended up being a calamity because of what was going on in the finance markets, so how could we have planned for that in our businesses? When you have a drop of 30 percent in sales in a two-month timeframe, coming off what had been a record year for most of us, I don’t know what lessons can be learned except to keep your inventories lean and keep your costs down.”
Bob Zabcik
“Building owners may have to find greater financial justification for new building project investments or renovations before they proceed. This can actually benefit the industry if we are educated in life-cycle costing and are prepared, as practitioners of our trade, to address the concerns of prospective owners.”
Do you see the metal construction industry returning to its pre-recession levels?
Ron van der Veen
“I believe the metal construction industry will thrive as we emerge from this economic hole. Metal’s inherent strength, lightness and beauty will be in high demand, especially in the green architecture movement. As we continue to pursue buildings and places that intelligently interact with light, air and the environment, metal construction gives us tremendous flexibility and creates opportunities.”
Bob Zabcik
“If the metal construction industry can work together to leverage the green-building opportunities, we will be able to capture more share of the market. As current financial restrictions become more relaxed, I hope that some level of pent-up demand will exist that we all can benefit from. I do believe that a slow, sustainable growth pattern ultimately will offer greater benefits to us as a country.”
Where do you think the metal industry excels and in what ways can it improve going into the future?
Rob Haddock, president, S-5!, Colorado Springs, Colo.
“It excels in developing cost-effective, lightweight construction methods that can be integrated with other materials. It excels in design and production of some of the best roof systems in the world. Structural Galvalume-coated steel is used at both steep and low slopes without the need for deck material. This results in a cost-effective roofing solution that will last 40 to 60 years in most environments, outlasting other roof types by 3 to 5 times. It is also the most suitable substrate for solar arrays because of its long service life and the ability to attach solar collectors without roof penetration. The way the industry can improve in the future is to market those strengths. The design community as a whole is not aware of these benefits.”
Ron van der Veen
“The metal industry still needs to figure out more elegant ways to thermal bridge and less expensive ways to meet fire rating requirements so we can expose steel structures. I love the look of steel columns, beams and trusses, but often have to cover them up due to fire rating issues. Intumescent [fire-retardant] paint tends only to be a viable option in limited amounts due to cost.”
Bob Zabcik
“The metal industry does a great job of getting products to market quickly and efficiently. There is a tremendous amount of product handling and manipulation that occurs in the process of production, fabrication and shipping. It is a gigantic task but we make it look simple. We also do an excellent job with waste. The steel we don’t use always goes in the recycle bin, which is good for business and the environment. Ways we can improve in the future include being more actively involved in developing and influencing codes and standards, particularly in green construction. We must either participate or be left behind. Also, the development of life-cycle assessment data can only be done with an industry-wide effort. Competitors will need to work together to develop the pertinent technical information. The level of cooperation necessary exceeds anything that has happened before, but is likely to improve the health of the industry as a whole. It’s a worthwhile undertaking.”
Michael Petersen
“One of my concerns in looking at our product, vis-à-vis other competitive products, is the cap and trade legislation that’s hanging out there in Congress. It seems to me that the steel industry has been pretty vocal against it, but the aluminum industry has surprised me in how quiet it has been. That kind of tax is really going to be a burden to our industry. On the other side, I see things in [the Washington-based U.S. Green Building Council’s] LEED, like life-cycle assessment, emerging as a big phenomenon, so it’s really a matter of how you determine the true life-cycle cost of steel and aluminum. The fact that our products can be infinitely recycled certainly is a point in our favor, but the embodied energy in our products is probably a concern.”
In what ways will the green-building movement continue to evolve and impact construction in the next decade?
Bob Zabcik
“It will force us to revisit many decisions we’ve made in the past concerning the manufacture of our products and our internal processes. We will be asked to justify the manufacture, use and expected performance of our products in a whole new way. Those who do this best will gain an upper hand on their competition. Those who don’t accept it as a reality will see their businesses erode over time.”
Scott Kriner
“The green-building phenomenon is no longer a movement, it is a market. And being a market presents many opportunities for the metal industry. The impact of green-building design, construction and operation has been significantly enhanced by the efforts of the USGBC and the LEED rating system, which has challenged the construction industry by continuously raising the bar beyond the conventional way of doing things. I would expect that to continue with emerging technologies and practices we can’t even imagine today. But designing a building to meet LEED requirements may not be enough. Architects already are looking beyond LEED to even higher standards of energy and environmental issues. Net-zero energy buildings are the new frontier and beyond that, negative-energy buildings may become a reality in our lifetime.”
Toy Henson
“All the indicators I see are showing that the research, planning and development of products will reflect greater energy efficiency and sustainable properties enhancements. As these products become the standards within the industry, their use will enhance the efficient properties of the buildings on which they are used and set new standards for building design and construction.”
Ron van der Veen
“The complex environmental issues of the 21st Century are not a fad. Considering the incredible energy, carbon footprint and water impact our industry has on society, we have the moral obligation to be agents of change. For those who are dragging their feet in the construction industry, all I can say is, ‘It was good knowing you!’ Even if one doesn’t buy into the ethical, social or moral aspects of better stewardship, every city, county, state and federal agency will continue to integrate sustainability into law and practice.”
Dick Bus
“Through education and government support, the green-building movement will continue to grow and have a positive impact on construction.”
Michael Petersen
“I think we can assume an architect is going to want to be a responsible designer. So whether projects are going for LEED qualifications or not, I think we will need to emphasize energy issues and the way in which a product will improve the energy efficiency of a building. And if you have a product line that clearly doesn’t do that, perhaps you should be looking for another product to sell.”
Mark James, vice president of sales and marketing, Roof Hugger, Tampa, Fla.
“In the past decade, the metal industry has been proving its metal products through performance testing for structural and sustainable characteristics and then by code adoption. The next generation of metal roof and wall systems will include extensive research and case study analysis to prove their superiority in energy efficiency.”
David English, corporate accounts and quote manager, Liberty Building Systems, Memphis, Tenn.
“The green-building movement will get bigger and more attractive as long as climate change is a hot topic. The green certifications and ratings that involve saving energy or responsible building practices will become the standard in the industry. Green-building practices will continue to increase in relevance for the foreseeable future and become more prevalent. One way sustainable building is evolving is through the influence of the U.S. government. It is becoming more involved and is requiring green technologies and certifications, such as LEED, to be applied to their building projects. As the government leads, it will thrust the green-building movement into new arenas.”
What role will metal play in green construction? How will the metal industry change and adapt to keep pace with sustainability trends?
Ron van der Veen
“This will be totally up to the imagination, creativity and intelligence of the industry. Recycled content, reduction of waste, paint toxicity and delivery distances will be just a few factors in greening products. In the future, the industry will also be much more aware of the inherent toxicity, energy and water consumption of the manufacturing process of materials used in construction. We have a person on our staff whose task it is to vet the ‘greenness’ of the products we specify. We are gaining a much more holistic understanding of the true nature of all the products we use to create environmentally intelligent buildings. For instance, we might want to use a product that is 90 percent recycled only to find that it has a highly energy-consumptive refining process. The design industry is now starting to ask bigger questions about the true sustainability of the products we specify.”
Bob Zabcik
“Metal’s inherent advantages in green construction are its durability and high recycled content. However, with the move to life-cycle assessment, neither of those traits will be directly recognized in green-building rating systems. Therefore, metal product manufacturers will need to lead the way in a development of LCA data for their industry that will scientifically demonstrate these and other important aspects of metal products. Furthermore, the results of this effort are likely to teach us how to manufacture greener and more efficient products.”
Scott Kriner
“The durability and long service life should become an important factor in the selection of metal for green or sustainable building materials. The developments of cool coatings, above-sheathing ventilation and dynamic metal building envelope systems will become even more important to designers wishing to reduce a building’s carbon footprint and lower energy consumption.”
David English
“Metal is as good, or better, than any other material in terms of reusability. Besides that, you typically don’t have a lot of waste when a metal building is constructed, which translates into less material going to landfills. This makes the pre-engineered metal building package an attractive one for building responsibly.”
What kinds of technological advancements do you see in metal components and materials in the next decade?
Mark James
“In the coming years, we will see integrated metal roof and wall assemblies that incorporate encapsulated convective ventilation combined with phase change insulating materials for extreme thermal resistance and solar thermal technology, as well as surface-mounted solar photovoltaics. This is our future for metal. Metal is the platform that has been needed to take building envelope technology to the next level toward achieving net-zero energy buildings.”
Brian Partyka
“We’ve reached a pretty good pinnacle in terms of our products. I think we’ll continue to further engineer metal roof panels to make sure they can meet higher design pressures to help in high-wind zones.”
Scott Kriner
“I see today’s interest in metal roof and wall panels changing into an interest in how metal can be integrated into energy-efficient roof and wall assemblies. Through dynamic building envelope breakthroughs and integration with solar and wind technologies, designers will be specifying a system rather than a product. Future codes and standards may also be issuing prescriptive and performance-based requirements related to systems rather than to individual components in those systems.”
Ron van der Veen
“I believe Building Information Modeling (BIM) is going to revolutionize the construction industry and how we design and deliver buildings. It will give us a whole new way of looking at construction from a three-dimensional standpoint. This could greatly increase the ability for designers, consultants, contractors and sub-consultants to work collaboratively and create much more intelligent buildings.”
Bob Zabcik
“I think the bulk of the advancements will come in the development of materials used in conjunction with metal substrates rather than the metals themselves. For example, paints, coatings and photovoltaic materials. There also is a tremendous opportunity to further enhance sustainable insulating foams to provide better R-value per inch than what’s currently available.”
What challenges and opportunities do you see in the coming decade?
Brian Partyka
“From an industry perspective, the challenge we face is the steel market. Cap and trade could be a challenge for domestic mills. Cap and trade restrictions are on the horizon, which may not level the playing field if foreign mills don’t have the same restrictions. Right now, there also is the challenge of making sure there’s enough work. I worry about the commercial construction industry going through the same thing the housing industry is going through now.”
Ron van der Veen
“It will come down to creativity and invention. Synthetic metals? Organic metals? Intelligent metals that can interact with the environment? Translucent metals? Metals with inherent high insulative values? Metals that generate electricity? The possibilities abound.”
Michael Petersen
“I think as the economy recovers, renovation and repurposing of buildings is going to be a big opportunity for our industry. We have a lot of restaurant chains going broke and the buildings are there. They’re going to be remodeled in some way, shape or form, coming out of this mess. I think that represents a big opportunity for us.”
David English
“The challenge for our industry will be same as the one facing the entire construction industry: When does private sector development come back and how long will that take? We can expect all growth to come from government spending in the short term, but long-term growth will hinge on the private sector. This is a challenge and also an opportunity for metal building companies right now. How do you capitalize on the government spending that is out there? Adapting to this growth will help sustain us until the private sector returns.”
Rob Haddock
“Metal has definite advantages over many other materials and systems when it comes to roofs, and very few disadvantages. If those advantages are communicated well by our industry in the next decade, metal should capture a much larger market share in the roofing arena. Steel also has advantages over concrete when it comes to structural systems, but these advantages are generally well-known by the design community, and the market for steel structural systems has matured. The pre-engineered metal building industry can grow the use of structural systems by marketing the benefits of its roofs.”
Bob Zabcik
“I think the greatest opportunities are in the use of sustainable, high-R-value materials and photovoltaic metal roof panels. There are also huge international opportunities with the shift toward a global economy.”